Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

Sunday, 16 November 2014

David Cameron warns of "further sanctions" on Russia

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UK Prime Minister David Cameron says Russian President Vladimir Putin "can see he is at a crossroads" over Ukraine.
"If he continues to destabilise Ukraine, there will be further sanctions, further measures and there will be a completely different relationship between European countries and America on the one hand and Russia on the other."
He was speaking at the G20 summit in Australia.

BBC NEWS

Ukraine crisis preoccupies G-20 summit

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Despite not being on the G-20 agenda the crisis in Ukraine hung heavy over the gathering of leaders from key developing and industrial countries Saturday.

With the meeting in its second and final day, President Obama talked Asia Pacific cooperation and Ukraine with the Australian and Japanese leaders. The leaders called on Russia to stop meddling in Ukraine. They expressed unity "in opposing Russia's purported annexation of Crimea and its actions to destabilize Eastern Ukraine."

They also called for "bringing to justice those responsible for the downing Malaysian flight 17" last July. Thirty-eight Australians were among the 298 people killed when the Malaysian airliner was shot down over war torn Eastern Ukraine.

Russia's Vladimir Putin is present at the summit but keeping a relatively low profile.

British Prime Minister David Cameron on Saturday met with Putin, telling him that Russia has two choices: either implement the Minsk cease fire and withdrawal agreement, or persist with destabilizing Ukraine and face the prospect of further economic sanctions.

Obama is meeting the five European Union leaders present in Brisbane to discuss Ukraine and possible new sanctions.

Putin told a German interviewer that the sanctions are harmful to the world economy and to Russia, and run counter to what the G-20 is trying to do to boost global growth.

Leaders of the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — also met on the sidelines of the Brisbane summit. A short statement issued afterwards made no mention of Ukraine.

The BRICS leaders — who have agreed to share their currency reserves and are setting up an infrastructure development bank— called on the United States to ratify long-delayed International Monetary Fund reforms which give greater voice to BRICS nations. The US, with the largest share of IMF votes, is the only country that has not yet approved the 2010 reforms.

Australian finance minister Joe Hockey says economic matters continue to be the central challenge for the G-20. "We can't rest," he said, "the world needs growth." Hockey said climate change and other issues should not overshadow what he called the real work of the summit.


USA today

Saturday, 1 November 2014

Pro-Russian rebels vote for leader in war-torn eastern Ukraine

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 Pro-Russian separatists will vote to set up a breakaway regional leadership in eastern Ukraine on Sunday aiming to take their war-torn region closer to Russia and defying Kiev and the West as the big guns still boom across the territory.

The United States and European Union have denounced as illegitimate the vote which is sure too to stoke tensions further between the West and Russia.

The separatists' poll is the latest twist in a geo-political face-off between Russia and the West over Ukraine going back to the overthrow of a Moscow-backed president in February and the installation of a Ukrainian leadership that seeks integration with mainstream Europe.

In Donetsk, the separatists' political and military stronghold, election workers at a polling station in an elementary school pasted red, black and blue rebel flags over Ukrainian state symbols on ballot boxes ahead of the vote.

"Voters lists were taken out by Ukrainian authorities, so we have had some difficulties, but we're trying to hold a legitimate vote for the people of Donetsk," said Natalia Chaban, an election official at a local school.

The big industrial city, which had a peace time population of nearly one million, experienced some of its heaviest mortar and artillery shelling of the last few weeks just hours before voting was due to begin. Ukraine said six of its servicemen had been killed in the last 24 hours.

Kiev says the vote violates the Minsk protocol that underpins a ceasefire between the rebels and Ukrainian troops. This, although sporadically broken, has allowed a semblance of normality to return to Donetsk following violence that has killed more than 3,700 people.

Kiev's pro-European government says the Minsk agreements, signed by rebel leaders and envoys from Kiev, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), forsee elections held under Ukrainian law.

These would appoint purely local officials with whom Kiev would agree new local powers to provide the regions with greater say in their own affairs.

The rebels' plan to elect leaders and institutions in a breakaway territory in the regions of Donetsk and neighbouring Luhansk, one week after a Ukrainian parliamentary election, violates that agreement, Kiev says.

The vote is certain to further strain ties between the West and Russia, already under several rounds of European and U.S. sanctions for its role in eastern Ukraine, after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would recognise the vote.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday the election was illegitimate and would not be recognised by Europe.

"We all understand that the West is fighting with Russia, but they've decided to do it in Ukraine. As for us, we're just trying to survive," said Vitaly, 34, a businessman in Donetsk.

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Rebels say the election will legitimise the separatist leadership and consolidate power, though many Donetsk residents say the vote will change nothing and the outcome is already a foregone conclusion.

Enthusiasm for the rebel cause, which was at its peak in Ukraine's Russian-speaking east following the ouster of Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovich, waned after violence closed banks and many stores, forcing people out of work.

"As for the elections tomorrow, I don't plan to vote. No one I know plans to either. There is no point," said Natasha, without giving her last name, outside a central Donetsk jewelry store, whose windows have been boarded up for months.

Current rebel prime minister Alexander Zakharchenko, a former mining electrician whose face is plastered on campaign advertisements across Donetsk, is almost certain to win the vote for the leadership of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic.

Zakharchenko, 38, has pulled colourful campaign stunts comparing the industrial region's coal deposits to the oil reserves in the United Arab Emirates and promising pensioners a monthly stipend that will allow them to go on safari in Australia.

His opponents, two lesser known separatist figures, have rarely, if ever, appeared in public.

At a Donetsk university, students gathered on Saturday to the tune of Russian composer Pyotr Chaikovsky's "Nutcracker Suite" playing over loudspeakers until Zakharchenko arrived, dressed in his camouflage military gear.

"We need a strong republic," he told the hundreds of students assembled in the auditorium of the Donetsk National Technical University, "And your weapons are your textbooks."

The rebel vote, which has no voting lists, will allow internet voting, which has already started, and mobile polling stations, will also select a People's Council, a lawmaking body.

Walking her two months old-granddaughter, Valentina Borisova, 52, said she planned on voting in the election to legitimise the current rebel leadership and start building a future for the region.

"We have to hope for the best and work towards creating our own little country," said Borisova, a worker at a local steel factory.

"Otherwise at our factory we barely have work, and that only happens when Russia delivers raw materials," she said.


reuters

Thursday, 30 October 2014

Ukraine, Moscow clinch deal on Russian gas supply

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Moscow and Kiev on Thursday clinched a deal that will guarantee that Russian gas exports flow into Ukraine and beyond to the European Union throughout the winter despite their intense rivalry over the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

"There is now no reason for people in Europe to stay cold this winter," said EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, whose offices mediated the talks for months.

He said he was "hopeful that the agreement can contribute to increase trust between Russia and Ukraine."

EU energy chief Guenther Oettinger said that "we can guarantee a security of supply over the winter," not only for Ukraine but also for the EU nations closest to the region that stood to suffer should the gas standoff have worsened.

The agreement long hinged on the question whether Ukraine was in a position to come up with the necessary cash to pay for the gas. "Yes, they are," a confident Oettinger said. The EU is set to come forward with aid to back up the cash-strapped government in Kiev.

Oettinger said the $4.6 billion deal should extend to the spring.

"We can claim and pay for amounts that we need. That question has been totally settled," said Yuriy Prodan, Ukrainian Minister for Energy.

After gas stopped flowing over the summer, Prodan said that it would resume its way into Ukraine "straight after we pay $1.45 billion" in a first portion. "There will be no problems."

The deal only stretches through March and the difficulties of the talks were immediately evident when the Russians and Ukrainians started disagreeing on terms and prices of gas for next summer.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, agreed earlier this month on the broad outline of a deal, but financial issues, centering on payment guarantees for Moscow, had long bogged down talks.

But with each week, the need for a resolution becomes more pressing, since winter is fast approaching in Ukraine, where temperatures often sink below freezing for days.

Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in June after disputes over Russia's annexation of Crimea in March. Ukraine since then has been relying on gas transfers from other European countries and its own reserves.

The EU has said previously that Ukraine would settle its energy debt to Russia with a $1.45 billion payment by the end of the month and $1.65 billion more by year's end. It has said for new gas deliveries, Ukraine would pay $385 per 1,000 cubic meters, which Russia should deliver following advance payments by Ukraine.

ap

Friday, 17 October 2014

Russia and Ukraine reach tentative gas deal in tough Milan talksLEA

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(Reuters) - Russia and Ukraine made progress on Friday towards resolving a dispute over gas supplies in time for winter, but European leaders said Moscow still had to do much more to prop up a fragile ceasefire and end fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The mooted deal could re-open Russian gas to Ukraine cut off since June, and ensure supply to European buyers further west before demand surges in the cold months and stocks run down. It came as something of a surprise after talks in Milan that the Kremlin said were "full of misunderstandings and disagreements".

Russia's Vladimir Putin told reporters that a deal ensuring gas supplies "at least for the winter" had been reached after a final one-on-one meeting with Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko, which followed talks attended by European leaders.

"We agreed on all the parameters of this deal," Putin said, but he urged European countries to help Ukraine meet a debt for gas, which he said stood at $4.5 billion.

The agreement followed a hectic series of meetings on the margins of a summit between Asian and European leaders in Milan at which Europeans showed no signs of agreeing to lift sanctions against Moscow imposed over the Ukraine crisis.

There was some progress on the issue of monitoring the Ukraine-Russian border and the so-called demarcation line separating pro-Russia militias and Ukrainian forces. Italy, Ukraine and Russia agreed to join France and Germany in providing surveillance drones for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is overseeing a ceasefire.

However an overall solution to a crisis which has revived memories of the Cold War still appeared remote, with key issues open including the question of local elections in breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine. And the meetings demonstrated the bitterness of relations between Putin and European leaders, above all Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"I cannot see a breakthrough here at all so far," said Merkel after one meeting. "We will continue to talk. There was progress on some details, but the main issue is continued violations of the territorial integrity of Ukraine."

Kiev and its Western backers accuse Moscow of aiding a separatist revolt in Ukraine by providing troops and arms. Russia denies direct involvement but says it has a right to defend the interests of Russian speakers.

Fighting has largely died down under a ceasefire agreed last month, but Western countries say Moscow must take further steps to reassure Kiev if it wants sanctions to be lifted.

Even as the fighting has taken place, Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a dispute over prices Kiev should pay for Russian gas. Russia, seeking higher prices and accusing Kiev of running up debt, cut off supplies to Ukraine in June. This has sparked fears that the Russian gas that transits Ukraine to Europe could also be disrupted when demand goes up this winter.

EU officials said the gas talks would continue in Brussels next week. Poroshenko told reporters he hoped the accord reached on Friday could be firmed up in time for the meeting.

Underlining the tense situation, artillery fire could be heard in Donetsk, the eastern city that is the main stronghold of pro-Russian separatists fighting for a split from Kiev.

GLOOM

Alexey Miller, the head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, who met the head of Ukrainian energy group Naftogaz earlier in the day, said that for supplies to resume, Ukraine would have to agree to Russia's conditions. "If these conditions are not agreed, then the present regime will apply," he said.

Clearly sympathetic with Kiev, European leaders lined up to tell Russia to ensure full implementation of the ceasefire deal.

Merkel's position as German leader means she sets the tone of EU relations with Russia and has taken the lead within Europe in trying to persuade Putin to change tack over Ukraine. She had a rocky time in Milan, however, with one German official saying the Russian leader had not displayed a "too constructive mood".

An initial meeting set for Thursday was delayed for hours because Putin flew into Italy well behind schedule. They then held more than 2-1/2 hours of talks that ran well past midnight, with both sides acknowledging discussions had been unproductive.

On Friday, Merkel reprimanded the former Soviet KGB spy in front of EU and Asian leaders, according to people present.

After a speech in which Putin raised doubts about the sovereignty of Ukraine, Merkel reminded him of the 1994 Budapest agreement, in which Russia recognised the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, a territory Russia seized in March and annexed.

The Kremlin also sounded unhappy about early meetings.

"The talks are indeed difficult, full of misunderstandings, disagreements, but they are nevertheless ongoing, the exchange of opinion is in progress," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, accusing some unnamed participants of taking an "absolutely biased, non-flexible, non-diplomatic" approach.

DEAL WITHIN REACH

Still, despite the difficult start, French President Francois Hollande said the later meetings were more productive.

"A deal on gas is now really within reach, which is very important for the Ukrainians and very reassuring for the Russians, because they really want to be paid," he said.

Russia is Europe's biggest gas supplier, accounting for around a third of its needs, and about half the Russian gas that the EU buys comes via Ukraine. The stand-off over pricing is the third in a decade between Moscow and Kiev, although this time the stakes are higher because of the fighting in Ukraine.

More than 3,600 people have died in eastern Ukraine since fighting broke out in mid-April when armed separatists declared they were setting up their own states in two provinces.

Although Putin announced this week that Russian troops near the border with Ukraine would be pulled back, Western officials want to see clear evidence that Moscow is acting on this.

"Vladimir Putin said very clearly he doesn't want a 'frozen conflict' and doesn't want a divided Ukraine," British Prime Minister David Cameron said.

"But if that's the case, then Russia now needs to take the actions to put in place all that has been agreed. If those things don't happen, then clearly the European Union, Britain included, must keep in place the sanctions and the pressure so we don't have this sort of conflict in our continent."

Wednesday, 15 October 2014

Putin to focus on Ukraine during trip to Milan

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(AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a series of meetings with Western leaders focusing on Ukraine during his trip to Italy, the Kremlin said Wednesday.

Attending this week's Europe-Asia summit in Milan offers Putin the first chance to discuss the Ukrainian crisis with Western leaders since his trip to France in June to attend the D-Day anniversary.

The U.S. and the European Union have imposed a series of economic sanctions against Moscow over its annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and support for a pro-Russia insurgency in eastern Ukraine. High-level contacts have been sharply curtailed amid the worst Russia-West crisis since the Cold War, and Putin hasn't traveled to Europe since a brief visit to Vienna in late June.

Presidential foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said that Putin will meet Thursday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and attend a dinner involving other leaders.

On Friday, Putin will have breakfast with the leaders of Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Ukraine and the European Union that will focus on Ukraine. A separate meeting involving Putin and the leaders of France, Germany and Ukraine is also being considered.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he's pinning big hopes on the meetings in Milan. He spoke with Putin over the phone Tuesday to discuss preparations for the talks.

In an apparent show of goodwill before the trip to Milan, Putin over the weekend ordered 17,600 Russian troops to pull back from the areas near the border with Ukraine and return to their home bases.

Ukraine and the West have repeatedly accused Russia of fueling the insurgency with weapons and fighters, allegations Moscow has rejected.

Hostilities in eastern Ukraine have abated following last month's cease-fire deal, but clashes still raged in a few areas. Late last month, Merkel said that the EU still wasn't considering removing the sanctions because of ongoing fighting.

Sunday, 12 October 2014

Putin orders Russian troop withdrawal from Ukrainian border

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(Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian troops to withdraw to their permanent bases after military exercises in Rostov region near the border with Ukraine, the Kremlin said, in a sign of some tension easing before a key meeting next week.

The troop pullout came before an expected meeting between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko in Milan next week.

The Kremlin said that the Russian president had met his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu.

"The minister had reported to the Supreme Commander about the completion of summer period of training on shooting ranges of the southern military district," said a statement on the Kremlin's web site.

"After the report, Putin ordered to launch the return of the troops to their permanent bases. In total, these are 17,600 military servicemen who were trained on the shooting ranges of Rostov region in summer."

Russian RIA Novosti news agency, citing the defense ministry, said that the troops have already started to pull out.

Relations between Moscow and the NATO alliance are at a post-Cold War low over Russia's actions in Ukraine, where it annexed the Crimean peninsula in March and has been supporting pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The West has introduced a wide range of sanctions against Russian banks, energy companies and individuals for Moscow's role in the Ukrainian conflict, which has claimed the lives of over 3,000 people.

A month ago, NATO said Russia had several thousand combat troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles in eastern Ukraine supporting pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian army.

Russia denies the charges but says it has a right to defend the interests of the region's Russian-speaking majority.

The alliance said at the end of last month it had observed a significant pullback of Russian conventional forces from inside Ukraine since an uneasy ceasefire began on Sept. 5.

The Kremlin has said Putin and Poroshenko may hold talks on the sidelines of a summit of Asian and European leaders in Milan on Oct. 16-17.

Alexei Makarkin from the Center for Political Technologies think-tank told Echo Moskvy radio that the troop pullout is probably one of the compromises between Russia and Ukraine.

"I think it could be about lifting part of the Western sanctions against Russia as a response to these decisions," he said.

Wednesday, 8 October 2014

One killed, three wounded in shelling in east Ukraine

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(Reuters) - At least one person was killed and three wounded when an artillery shell hit a shopping center in Donetsk, a city in east Ukraine controled by pro-Russian separatists where fighting goes on despite a ceasefire.

A Reuters cameraman in Donetsk saw at least one body and counted three wounded people after the shell crashed through the roof of the shopping center, smashing food stalls.

The head of the separatist self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic", Alexander Zakharchenko, told a news conference nine people were wounded in the shelling.

"I don't know how this ceasefire is working here, or is it not working at all?" he said.

Kiev denies shelling civilian areas and both sides say they are observing the Sept. 5 ceasefire, which has generally brought a respite from fighting in eastern Ukraine.

But continued fighting in Donetsk, including at the city airport, between Ukrainian troops and rebel fighters is increasing pressure on the shaky truce.

The government in Kiev and its Western backers blame Russia for fanning the separatist unrest, including by arming the rebels and reinforcing them with Russian troops. The West has imposed sanctions on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine.

Russia, which annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March, denies playing any role in the armed conflict, though it supports the east Ukrainian separatists' claims that the central government in Kiev has been mistreating their Russian-speaking region.

More than 3,660 people have been killed and more than 8,700 wounded in east Ukraine since the violence erupted in April and the conflict is still claiming about 10 lives a day, the United Nations said on Wednesday.

Saturday, 4 October 2014

Ukraine says its forces killed 12 rebels at Donetsk airport

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(Reuters) - Pro-Russian separatists have suffered their worst casualties since a ceasefire officially began on Sept.5, losing 12 men in attacks on buildings at Donetsk airport, Ukrainian military officials said on Saturday.

The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine has become increasingly frayed in recent days, leading to the death of a number of civilians and soldiers as well as a Red Cross worker in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.

"The airport of Donetsk remains the priority target for terrorists. Yesterday they resorted to a few, fortunately unsuccessful, attempts to storm it," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told journalists.

"Twelve (separatists) were killed during the attacks and that is the biggest single loss among rebels since Sept.5," he added.

Lysenko said that two Ukrainian servicemen were killed during the past 24 hours, but he gave no further details.

Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces on Friday of helping separatists to step up pressure on government troops holding the airport in Donetsk, threatening a fragile ceasefire.

The latest U.N. estimate is that more than 3,500 people have died in the conflict which erupted after pro-Western leaders took power in Kiev following street protests that chased Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovich from power.

Thursday, 2 October 2014

Ukraine wary of fragile peace as patriotism surges

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(AP) — Since Ukraine's conflict with Russia erupted, Oleksandr Federenko has gone from village kid to army cadet, trading computer games for knife-throwing classes and morning marches. He is only 13.

Federenko's shy laugh and wisp of upper lip hair seem at odds with his bulky camouflage uniform as he explains his decision to sign up for the military academy. "This year I had this feeling of patriotism," he says, "and I wanted to defend my country."

In Ukraine, the government's campaign against pro-Russian rebellion in the east has united people of all ages in a newfound patriotic fervor. Army ads dominate TV stations, war heroes are at the top of every party's list for this month's parliamentary election and defense issues — once an afterthought in Ukraine — now lead the agenda.

Although many Ukrainians are ready to give a cease-fire called last month a chance, they see it only as a temporary fix and are digging in for years of confrontation, if not outright war, with Russia. President Petro Poroshenko has struggled to sell his deal with Russia and the separatists to a skeptical home audience.

"Solving the war in (the eastern regions of) Luhansk and Donetsk with the military alone is impossible," he said in a recent interview with Ukrainian television channels. "The more military groups we have there, the more the Russian army will send."

Although Poroshenko says the "most dangerous part of the war" in the east has passed, fatal clashes continue, particularly at the government-held airport near the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, where more than 20 people have been killed this week.

"Ukrainians are in theory in favor of restoring peace," said Andriy Bychenko, the director of sociological services at Kiev's Razumkov Center. "But the majority is not sure that this peace will be stable and dependable. They lack confidence in Russia."

For Federenko and the other young cadets at the Boyarka military academy about 20 kilometers (12 miles) outside Kiev, that lack of confidence means adjusting to life in a Ukraine that sees itself as under constant threat.

Federenko may come across as an unlikely fighter, but he and his friends are part of what Ukraine's Ministry of Defense says is a 13.7 percent increase in applications to military-run high schools this year alone. The military will receive an extra $3 billion, or 50 percent of previous budget targets, by 2017.

The young cadet says he has struggled to adapt to the daily routine, and doesn't love the 6:30 wake-up time, the morning drills and the stingy one hour of free time a day. But here, he says, "you start to grow up quicker."

Ukraine, too, has had to come to terms with some tough realities this year, and its deepening resentment of Russia is on full display in downtown Kiev. Stands selling smartphone cases decorated with Ukrainian embroidery patterns are also stocked with another top-selling item: toilet paper rolls showing Russian President Vladimir Putin and the inscription "PTN PNKh," an abbreviation for an obscene message to the Russian leader.

As Ukraine rolls into election season, candidates have struggled to outdo each other with promises to continue the campaign against the rebels or bring Ukraine into NATO. Political parties have rushed to snap up war heroes.

Nadiya Savchenko, a female pilot who was captured by Russian forces, tops the list of candidates for Fatherland, the party of gold-braided former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Savchenko has been charged with the deaths of two Russian journalists and remains behind bars in Russia, so it's hard to see how she would be able join parliament. But her role as a figurehead says much about just how seriously Ukraine's politicians are taking public opinion about the conflict in the east.

In a poll conducted the week after the cease-fire by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, more than 50 percent of those polled in western and northern regions of Ukraine said that they supported ongoing military activities against the rebels. A total of 63 percent of respondents in the west and 54 percent in the north said they believed that Kiev had used "not enough force" against the separatists. The poll of 1,613 people had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Political parties have also added to their rosters leaders of volunteer militia groups, many of whom have been openly critical of the government for not taking a harder line against the rebels and for sending Ukrainian soldiers or volunteers into battle unprepared and ill-equipped.

One political party that owes much of its success to rise of armed Ukrainian patriotism is the Radical Party, a previously marginal group with only one member of parliament that is now slated to garner at least 10 percent of the vote in the upcoming elections. Sergei Melnichuk, the leader of a pro-Ukraine militia that operates near Luhansk, is number three on the party list.

The cease-fire "is a chance to re-arm so that later we can really hit them in the teeth and recapture our territory," he said by phone from the Luhansk region. "I am for peace, but I am prepared to fight."

Monday, 29 September 2014

Ukraine leader clings to European goal despite Putin

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(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has secured a temporary peace in the troubled east which he says gives him a chance to move Ukraine towards its dream of a place in Europe - but Russia's Vladimir Putin still holds cards that could thwart him.

And, a month away from a parliamentary election which he hopes will bring a strong coalition of support for sweeping reforms, Poroshenko's peace plan is coming under greater criticism at home - even from some of his erstwhile allies.

A U.S. refusal to provide Kiev with high-precision weaponry required to beat Russian-backed separatists on the battlefield, and the European Union's move to defer implementation of part of a key pact with Ukraine to appease Moscow have spelled the clear message that Western support for Kiev has its limits.

Meanwhile, Poroshenko's plan to give three years of limited self-rule to the separatists in the east - an idea which he still has to fully "sell" to his pro-Western political elite - is being undermined by the independence-minded rebels. They say they want no part of any grand scheme from Kiev.

The main problem for Poroshenko is that his dream of taking Ukraine into the European mainstream is fundamentally opposed by Putin who appears set on doing all he can to make the former Soviet republic of 46 million ineligible as a European partner.

This makes any further steps taken by Putin potential game-changers. Both NATO and the Kiev military say there has been a significant withdrawal of Russian forces from inside Ukraine after an intervention in August they say tipped the balance of power on the ground towards pro-Moscow rebels.

But analysts say Putin's broad agenda is unchanged: to destabilise Ukraine's internal situation and render it unfit as a potential ally for the EU and NATO alike.

"Russia is not trying to stabilise the situation. It is trying to destabilise the situation," said James Sherr, an associate fellow of the London-based Chatham House think tank.

FAILED OFFENSIVE

As setbacks have mounted, Poroshenko, an optimistic-minded billionaire who made his fortune in the confectionery business, has sought to play down the failed military offensive to crush the separatists and talk up the effects of the ceasefire he called on Sept. 5.

Daily military casualties are down to zero and the "the most dangerous part of the war" is over, he announced last week.

He told Ukrainians to be braced for sweeping reforms after the Oct. 26 election which would rid Ukraine of its legacy of endemic corruption and unlock acceptance into mainstream Europe, allowing Ukraine to apply for EU membership in 2020.

Rejection of the reforms, he warned, would mean that Ukraine's future would be "alone with Russia".

Ukraine's relations with the EU are at the core of the Russia-West geopolitical tussle over the country's future.

It was rejection of the association pact by Poroshenko's Moscow-backed predecessor Viktor Yanukovich that caused mass unrest, leading to Yanukovich's downfall, the subsequent annexation of Crimea by Russia and rebellions in the east.

While Poroshenko was seeking last week to focus people's minds on the distant dream of European integration, criticism became more strident of his plan to grant temporary limited self-government to the separatist-minded parts of the east, an area known as the Donbass.

"It is clear to everybody that there is no agreed vision of a future Donbass which is the key criticism today of the peace settlement process," Serhiy Taruta, a billionaire industrialist and Kiev-appointed governor of Donetsk region, much of which is held by separatist forces, wrote on Friday.

"If a status quo is fixed and the occupied territories are given 'special status' and a part of Ukrainian sovereignty is delegated, then this will wind the situation back to May when the separatist movement had only just started getting going," he wrote in the online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda.

"How are we expected to regard the Donbass now? As a 'grey zone' of lawlessness and anarchy? As a time-bomb on a slow release? Or as an 'experimental field'?," Taruta asked.

Plans for a 30-km (19-mile) wide "buffer zone", from which the warring sides will remove artillery and other heavy armaments, have only added to fears in Kiev of a permanent "no-go" zone being created.

Poroshenko says he will not allow a breakaway entity to develop within Ukraine's borders outside Kiev's control, though the rebels are already planning to stage their own elections in early November.

Taruta's comments and similar views expressed by other players in Kiev, though, suggest Poroshenko will have to fight hard to secure a strong mandate from next month's election.

"The big problem he has - if not today, but will have - is not in eastern Ukraine. It is the ground disappearing under his feet in Kiev. The basis of support for Poroshenko is already fragmenting," said Sherr of Chatham House.

BATTLEFIELD REVERSES

It was big battlefield reverses in late August - caused, Kiev says, by the direct intervention of Russian forces - that forced Poroshenko to abandon hopes of a military victory.

Ukrainian media reports say hundreds of government soldiers were killed in a crushing defeat at Ilovaisk, east of the city of Donetsk, details of which have still not been disclosed by the Kiev military.

"It was a serious psychological and political blow," said independent analyst Volodymyr Fesenko of the Penta think-tank. "There is the feeling that it was this that made Poroshenko begin to negotiate."

Despite the ceasefire, Kiev still shows signs of war fever, sitting oddly in a pleasant European capital of chestnut-lined boulevards which only two years ago hailed international friendship and goodwill as it staged a European football fest.

Of the 3,500 or so people killed in six months of conflict, more than 1,000 are serving soldiers.

Supermarkets provide boxes for financial help to soldiers at the front. TV channels run army recruitment campaigns and social advertising lauding the servicemen and women on the front line.

Public meetings rarely take place without a moment of silence for a new generation of "martyrs" and heroes. Poroshenko himself proudly announced that his own British-educated son, Oleksiy, was a volunteer in one of the pro-Ukrainian battalions serving in the east.

NO U.S. ARMS

Despite Poroshenko's impassioned plea for arms in the United States - he told the U.S. Congress that "blankets" alone were not enough to win the war - he came away empty handed from talks with U.S. President Barack Obama.

So even if his peace plan collapses, a resumption of the offensive against the separatists to take back the initiative does not look to be on the cards.

"If we go along a military path again, I don't think we will liberate the Donbass again. We'll lose it," Fesenko said.

Putin's next move is hard to guess though Poroshenko says he hopes Russia will not back the rebels' plans for separate elections on Nov. 2 in their 'people's republics'.

Poroshenko said he expects to meet the Kremlin leader in the next three weeks somewhere in Europe and he may learn more then of Putin's intentions.

Poroshenko's course of action now seems to be calming the waters at home in the run-up to the election and then securing a strong parliamentary base to be able to move ahead with his peace plan with renewed confidence.

In the meantime, he is leaving it to his hawkish prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk to make the running in denouncing Russian action. Speaking to Reuters in New York, Yatseniuk said Russia was preparing to use natural gas supply as a weapon.

"They want us to freeze," he said, adding that he did not trust Putin at all.

Poroshenko's worry though is that the Russians, despite the effect of U.S. and EU sanctions, continue stealthily to have a stake in Ukraine's future.

When preliminary talks began on Friday to mark out a potential buffer zone, Russia sent a team of 76 officers, according to Ukrainian sources and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) - but their presence was flatly denied by Moscow.

Securing a delay in the implementation of a free trade deal between the EU and Ukraine until January 2016 was seen by some as a coup for Russian diplomacy.

This appears to imply a role for Russia in discussing Ukraine's future ties with the bloc and underscores Moscow's determination to try to put a brake on the pact even though it has been ratified by the Ukrainian and European parliaments.

Friday, 26 September 2014

Russia, Ukraine In Talks On Gas As Winter Looms

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(AP) — Russia and Ukraine are holding talks to solve their long-running gas dispute as pressure mounts for a solution to head off a winter supply crisis in Ukraine and beyond.

Friday's meeting in Berlin between the Russian and Ukrainian energy ministers, brokered by EU energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger, comes more than three months after Moscow cut off gas supplies to Kiev.

The dispute, part of a wider conflict over Ukraine's relations with Russia and the West, involves the price of Russian gas supplies and Kiev's historic gas debts.

A sense of urgency is beginning to mount. Ukraine needs deliveries to resume if it is to keep its industries running through the winter. Meanwhile, much of the Russian gas supplied to EU countries passes through pipelines that cross Ukraine.

"European and Ukrainian energy and gas supplies are very closely connected with each other," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this week. "Winter is nearing, so time is pressing."

Russia shut off supplies to Ukraine this summer but still allows gas to transit through its pipeline network to customers in the rest of Europe. Poland, Hungary and some other European countries have been selling some of their gas to Ukraine via so-called "reverse flow" shipments, which Moscow dislikes.

Recently, some of these countries have had trouble supplying Ukraine with gas as they build their own reserves ahead of the winter and amid reports of tighter controls by Russia. Poland this month halted deliveries for a week, citing inadequate supplies from Russia.

On Thursday, Hungarian pipeline operator FGSZ said it suspended deliveries to Ukraine indefinitely, citing the need for technical work to "manage the security supply" in the face of increasing demand.

Asked about Hungary's move, EU Commission spokeswoman Helen Kearns in Brussels said the commission expects "all member states to facilitate reverse flows as agreed ... in the interest of a shared energy security."

Kearns said there is nothing to prevent EU companies disposing freely of gas purchased from Gazprom. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, however, said that the contracts don't foresee any re-exports.

"We hope our European partners will keep to the agreements," he told Germany's Handelsblatt daily. "Only that can guarantee interruption-free deliveries to European consumers."

Russia stopped gas deliveries to Ukraine after the two sides failed to agree on a formula for paying what Russian gas giant Gazprom said this month are $5.3 billion in gas debts, and Moscow demanded upfront payments for future supplies. The two sides have also failed to bridge differences over the future gas price for Ukraine, with Kiev insisting on a lower price than Moscow offered.

Previous three-way talks failed to avert the gas cutoff.

Oettinger told reporters in Brussels on Thursday that the goal is "to get a real constructive and coherent answer" to the dispute. "I do always expect good results, so for tomorrow as well," he said.

EU member states got 24 percent of their gas in 2012 from Russia, according to industry association Eurogas, and about half of that goes through the pipelines across Ukraine. In 2013, Ukraine imported nearly 26 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia, just over half its annual consumption.